Rock, Chalk and Next Year’s Setup
Basketball, College Basketball
Posted by Obiora, April 11, 2008 - 9:10 pm
Congratulations to the Kansas Jayhawks for one of the more breathtaking title runs in recent memory. Mario Chalmers’ 3-pointer to force overtime was reminiscent of Christian Laettner’s shot to beat Kentucky in 1992. Except that Chalmers’ shot was in the title game whereas Laettner’s was only in a Regional Final. Memphis certainly deserves much praise for coming through an incredibly tough region, having beaten Michigan State, Texas and UCLA to reach the final. Were it not for blown free throws (a perpetual problem for Calipari’s teams), the Tigers’ exceptionally talented bunch of players would have been cutting down the nets. But in the end, that’s what Memphis was - a talented group of players. Kansas was the better team.
In making an early Top 16 list for next year, it’s tough to gauge teams so far before the NBA declaration deadline. I’m making some assumptions as to the potential exit of certain teams’ key players so this list will certainly change in the coming months.
1. Kansas
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: Brandon Rush, Darrell Arthur, Bill Self?
Why here: The defending national champions return a superb backcourt in Mario Chalmers and Sherron Collins. Of course, Kansas’ biggest retention should be head coach Bill Self who may be tempted by his alma mater Oklahoma State and the millions that big name alum Boone Pickens is going to throw his way. This isn’t the same decision as Roy Williams leaving KU to go back to UNC. Self is already at one of the true blue-bloods of college basketball.
2. Texas
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: DJ Augustin
Why here: Texas returns a big part of their nucleus with AJ Abrams, Connor Atchley, Damion James and Justin Mason set to saddle up for another season in Austin. I don’t know who could adequately replace Augustin if he bolted but Rick Barnes has proven he can recruit the Lonestar state and will surely find someone to fill in the gap.
3. UConn
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: Hasheem Thabeet
Why here: In order for UConn to live up to the hype-to-come, AJ Price will need to come back strong from an ACL tear suffered during the NCAA tournament. The young Huskies matured a great deal last year surprising many with a strong run through the Big East and will be one of the front-runners of the league next year. If Thabeet comes back (and it is your humble narrator’s opinion that he should), UConn will once again be a force nationally.
4. Purdue
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: No one of consequence
Why here: Matt Painter’s baby Boilermakers were one of the great surprises of the season contending for the top spot in the Big Ten all year. All that experience should translate into an outright Big Ten title and possibly serious consideration for the national title.
5. UCLA
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: Kevin Love, Darren Collison, Russell Westbrook, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Why here: So how does a team that might lose this many key players (including the best name in college basketball) stay in the Top 5? Simply, Ben Howland doesn’t rebuild. He reloads. Though they’ll be tempted, I don’t think that Westbrook or Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will leave. Add in one of the best recruiting classes in the nation and it’s another season of sky-high expectations at Pauley Pavilion.
6. North Carolina
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson
Why here: I said all year that Ty Lawson is the x-factor that makes the Tar Heels go. If he and Hansbrough leave, UNC will take a step back and will not be the superb machine that made it to the Final Four. But ’step back’ is a relative term in Chapel Hill. A step back means a Top 10 ranking instead of Top 5, a #2 or #3 seed instead of #1 and perhaps only an Elite Eight appearance instead of a Final Four or title game shot.
7. Georgetown
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: Roy Hibbert, Jonathan Wallace, Patrick Ewing, Jr.
Why here: Despite his size and obvious talent, I never felt that Roy Hibbert properly lived up to the big man legacy created by the likes of Patrick Ewing Sr and Dikembe Mutombo. I know that’s a tall mountain to climb but this kid could’ve done it. #1 recruit Greg Monroe should fill in admirably in JT3’s Princeton Motion offense. Jonathan Wallace’s leadership and grit will be missed more than Hibbert’s ability to vanish in big games but Jesse Sapp and DaJuan Summers will have the Hoyas right back in contention.
8. Memphis
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Joey Dorsey
Why here: You need only to look at the phenomenal talent leaving Memphis to remember the phenomenal recruiting prowess of John Calipari. The Tigers will run roughshod over Conference USA again and position themselves for another run through the Madness.
9. Pitt
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: Mike Cook, Ronald Ramon
Why here: The Panthers return the core of a team that battled through major injuries to win the Big East tournament. If Jamie Dixon can find the right balance between playing hard in the Big East and reserving strength for the NCAA tournament, Pitt might finally through the Sweet Sixteen barrier that has plagued the Panthers since their rise to national prominence.
10. Tennessee
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: Chris Lofton, JaJuan Smith, Jordan Howell
Why here: I racked my brain to find a reason for not putting Tennessee this high. I couldn’t find one; not because I think the Vols are that good. Losing Lofton will be big. But the rest of the SEC isn’t as strong (hey it’s not football season!) as the Big East, ACC, Pac-10 or Big XII. Bruce Pearl’s Vols will win a bunch of games next year and compete for a top seed.
11. West Virginia
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: Joe Alexander
Why here: Bob Huggins. The man is as slippery as slime but he sure can coach as evidenced by his masterful job pushing the Mountaineers past Duke in the second round. The tempation will be to drop WVU if Alexander leaves but with top recruit Kevin Jones coming onboard and returning players more comfortable with the system, the Mountaineers will be a formidable opponent.
12. Arizona State
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: Jerryd Bayless
Why here: I remember Herb Sendek’s NC State teams were always a tough out in the ACC and he’s producing the same results in the desert. Jerryd Bayless’ scoring will be sorely missed but the Sun Devils are a rising program out west.
13. Notre Dame
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: No one of consequence
Why here: Mike Brey is one of the more underrated coaches even in the Big East to say of nothing nationally. But with Luke Harangody returning, the Fighting Irish will have another successful season in the Big East.
14. USC
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: OJ Mayo
Why here: Another rising western team, the Trojans are getting their share of superb west coast talent. Taj Gibson should be back to lead Tim Floyd’s team and another big recruiting class will continue the Trojans’ rise.
15. Duke
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: DeMarcus Nelson
Why here: Although Duke returns a large core of players, notably Kyle Singler and Greg Paulus, Coach K failed to adequately address the big man problem that plagued the Blue Devils last year. I don’t see this team making a Final Four run next year but they will be right in the hunt in the ACC and will win a lot of games.
16. Florida
Graduating/Possibly Leaving: Marreese Speights
Why here: Such was the drop in experience that the two-time champions didn’t even make this year’s NCAA tournament. That means that this year’s youngsters will morph into next year’s seasoned vets. I wouldn’t expect a deep tournament run next year but the Gators will be back in the SEC title mix.
Just missed the cut: Louisville (might move up after the NBA declaration deadline), Michigan State (loss of Drew Neitzel), Gonzaga (they really haven’t done much nationally in the past few years), Miami-FL (prove you’re not a one-year wonder), Syracuse (prove you’re more than just Johnny Flynn)
Photo Credit: Reuters
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