Scouting the Madness

Basketball, College Basketball

Posted by Obiora, March 20, 2008 - 1:51 pm

All hail the Madness! I have some friends in KC who annually take off the first week of the tournament to go to Vegas to watch the games and throw away their money on their Jayhawks’ homerism. Maybe this is the year they hit it big or maybe not.

First though, a couple comments on the conference tournaments. Georgia won only 4 SEC conference games all year, then doubled its total by winning the SEC tournament. This achievement was all the more remarkable as the Dawgs played two games in one day to reach the SEC final then took down Arkansas to win the title. Though they ‘only’ played one game per day, Pitt won its second Big East tournament title with a remarkable four-day run which included wins over Cincinnati, Louisville, Marquette and Georgetown. The Panthers overcame a putrid 22/44 effort at the the free-throw line to avenge last year’s title game defeat to the Hoyas.

Back to the NCAA tournament. I’m not going to comment on teams that should or should not have gotten into the tournament. In the end, if you’re that much of a bubble team, the best you might do is one first round upset before the big boys re-assert themselves. By and large, the committee does a fine job of balancing issues of schedule strength, conference strength and how a team is playing down the stretch.

I fill out around 15-20 different paper brackets each year, mostly out of boredom at work and also because I love thinking about all the possible matchups. In addition, I usually join a number of Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline online bracket competitions. A lot of the combinations in recent years have revolved around the alma mater - dream brackets, hopeful brackets, ‘realistic’ brackets. For my sake, someday those will all converge. As if decisions concerning the alma mater can ever be truly rational. So without further ado, some thoughts on this year’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

East Region
It’s so easy to pick UNC to come out of this region that you might second-guess yourself. Don’t let that happen. UNC is playing some of its best ball with Ty Lawson coming back strong and Tyler Hansbrough continuing his banging, crashing, POY-contendng ways. Also consider that the East Region games will be played in Raleigh, NC and then Charlotte, NC. Roy Williams will be laughing all the way to the Final Four.

I wouldn’t pick George Mason to duplicate its 2006 heroics. The Fighting Irish will be playing with a chip on their shoulders after exiting the Big East tournament early on. Tennessee is one of those really good teams that, to me, just lacks what it takes to win a national title (this year). I think you may look for the possibility for a second round upset of the Vols against the Butler Bulldogs. If so, take Louisville to emerge from its late-season swoon to make the Elite Eight opposite the Tarheels.

Indiana might be one of the most dangerous #8 seeds since Villanova won the 1985 national title and I expect them to get past a very good Arkansas squad before running into UNC. If Butler doesn’t pull the upset over Tennessee, I’d look for this region to follow seed expectations.

Midwest Region
I call this the Upset Region. Every year, at least one #5 vs #12 matchup becomes a trendy upset pick and this year is no exception. Villanova is a talented enigma, playing like worldbeaters one day and scrubs the next. Clemson acquitted itself well in the ACC Tournament but its inability to put away the Tarheels when it counted gives me pause when assessing the Tigers’ chances of advancing in the tournament.

Possibly the most intriguing first round matchup concerns #6 Southern Cal vs #11 Kansas State. The selection committee surely put this matchup together so we would get the chance to see super phenoms OJ Mayo and Michael Beasley square off against each other. The winner of this game will have its hands full against a tough Wisconsin squad and may be too tired to fend off the Badgers. I’ve liked Wisconsin all year and Bo Ryan is one of the most underrated coaches in the nation. Look for #3 Wisconsin to give #2 Georgetown all it can handle in the Sweet 16; I wouldn’t be surprised if they take out the Hoyas as center Roy Hibbert can be susceptible to disappearing in big games.

However, look for the top seeds - Kansas and Georgetown - to come out of the Midwest. This is the toughest of all the potential #1 vs #2 Elite Eight matchups. Kansas is one of the three most talented teams in the nation (alongside Memphis and UNC) but if Brandon Rush doesn’t play like the superstar he can be, Georgetown will wear down the Jayhawks.

South Region
#1 seed Memphis has one of the toughest roads to the Final Four - potential second round against Mississipi State or Oregon, Sweet Sixteen against Pitt or Michigan State and Elite Eight against Marquette or Texas. Despite Coach Cal’s protestations to the contrary, the Tigers will be hard-pressed to make a deep run without hitting their free-throws consistently throughout the game, not just down the stretch.

Speaking of poor free-throw shooting, Pitt will also need to improve its overall percentage from the charity stripe in order to continue the momentum gathered during its Big East tournament title run. Tom Izzo has led Michigan State to the Final Four 4x and his squad will not allow Pitt to advance without a marked improvement from the free-throw line. Of all the teams seeded #3 or lower, #4 Pitt (along with #3-seeded Wisconsin) has the best chance of taking down a #1 seed with its toughness inside and scoring ability outside. Stanford should be on upset alert against Marquette in the second round. The Cardinal could still very well make the Sweet 16 but they don’t have the balance to take out a great Texas squad led by DJ Augustin.

West Region
For me, this is probably the hardest region to call other than UCLA. There are two mid-majors in the West (#3 Xavier and #5 Drake), two inexperienced squads (#4 UConn and #6 Purdue), a dangerous but inside-challenged #2 Duke squad and a true major-conference Cinderella in #14 Georgia.

Drew Lavender’s ankle may not be 100% before tip-off but the Musketeers should be able to get past a Dawgs squad that survived a Saturday double-header on its way to winning the SEC tournament. Drake is a great story out of the Missouri Valley Conference however UConn just has more talent and should come thru in a potential second round match-up before running into the buzzsaw that is UCLA. Arizona is the sleeper in this region. When healthy, Chase Budinger and Jerryd Bayless form a potent scoring combination. The Wilcats could be the ones to make a surprise Elite Eight run. Arizona’s achilles heel, as always, is defense.

It’s obvious enough that UCLA will come through this region. No other team in this region can match the Bruins’ overall talent with the potent combination of center Kevin Love and guard Darren Collison and meaningful contributions from Josh Shipp, Russell Westbrook and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (you just can’t write about UCLA without mentioning the best name in college basketball). Duke can rain down 3’s with the best of them but the Bruins play like a Big East team out west.

Photo Credits: Kevin Cox/WireImage; Jesse Bowman/US PressWire

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