Dreaming of March Madness

Basketball, College Basketball

Posted by Obiora, March 6, 2008 - 10:41 am

With Selection Sunday less than two weeks away, it’s time to look at the contenders and pretenders heading into the conference tournaments and March Madness.

Contenders
UCLA Bruins (25-3, RPI: 7) - Kevin Love continues to play with a maturity beyond his years. He has posted double-doubles in 11 out of the past 13 games. Darren Collison, Josh Shipp and Russell Westbrook are all averaging double-digits in points with Luc Richard Mbah a Moute averaging 5+ rebounds per game. This is a very balanced team. With possible first and second round games within a couple hours of LA, Ben Howland’s men will have a great advantage over other road-weary tournament teams.

Memphis Tigers (28-1, RPI: 2) - Arguably the most athletic team in the nation, the Tigers come at you from all points of the court. I love watching Derrick Rose play. His explosion to the basket is something to behold. Teams have thrown junk defenses at Memphis all year. Like all of Coach Cal’s past teams, this one doesn’t shoot well from the charity stripe and that may be their undoing come March, just as it was against Tennessee.

North Carolina Tar Heels (27-2, RPI: 3) - The Tar Heels have size, speed, toughness and experience. Tyler Hansbrough is one of two legitimate player of the year candidates (along with Michael Beasley of K-State). But the Tar Heels’ fortunes rest with the health of Ty Lawson. If the sophomore guard is healthy, Roy Williams’ team should make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

Kansas Jayhawks (25-3, RPI: 3) - Brandon Rush’s assertiveness (or lack thereof) will determine KU’s fate. Although Rush can be a game-changing player, there’s nothing else that really jumps out at you about the Jayhawks. They are simply one of the best all-around teams in the nation.

Pretenders
Duke Blue Devils (25-3, RPI: 4) - I’m crazy, right? Duke has beaten UNC and has been at or near the top of the ACC all year. However, when we say that a particular season has been one of a coach’s finest jobs, it usually means he’s had to overcome certain deficiencies (as it has been with Jamie Dixon this year at injury-depleted Pitt) that may be exposed in March . Duke’s deficiency all year has been a lack of post presence and that will ultimately cost them a national title.

Connecticut Huskies (23-6, RPI: 13) - With AJ Price and Hasheem Thabeet finally living up to the billing, the Huskies have rocketed into the thick of the Big East race. The three-time national champions didn’t figure to be among the Big East’s top dawgs this year. UConn could become a trendy pick coming out of the stacked Big East but ultimately, a lack of tournament experience will be their undoing. Watch for the Huskies to run to daylight next year.

Stanford Cardinal (24-4, RPI: 17) - Whereas Duke relies on outside shooting and has less of an inside presence, the Cardinal, currently #2 in the Pac-10 standings, have been relying on the 7-foot Lopez twins inside and have less of a perimeter game. This lack of balance has to be a concern heading into the NCAA tournament.

Sleepers
Indiana Hoosiers (24-5, RPI: 16) - Indiana has weathered the Kelvin Sampson saga admirably and bringing in Dan Dakich was a good move. Although freshman phenom Eric Gordon gets all the headlines, senior forward DJ White is the engine that makes the Hoosiers go. Making a move in March is all about having a transformational player who can put a team on his back in crunch time. IU has two such players.

Georgetown Hoyas (24-4, RPI: 9) - Hoya paranoia indeed. No team seems to live on the edge as much as Georgetown. No team has a bigger enigma than 7′2″ center Roy Hibbert, who has all the tools to dominate but disappears for long stretches in games. Georgetown has all the pieces in place for another deep tournament run but will need more consistency from Jonathan Wallace in order to take the pressure off DaJuan Summers.

Xavier Musketeers (25-4, RPI: 6) - Sean Miller’s squad has been flying high all year. The Musketeers are gunning for a #2 seed and their balanced approach has them finishing strong, having won 17 of 18 to this point.

Neither Contending nor Pretending
I agonized over putting the likes of Tennessee, Texas and others in either the contenders or pretenders list. You could make a case for Tennessee pushing KU off the contenders list but I think the Jayhawks are more athletic and if Brandon Rush is more assertive, they’ll be a tougher out in March. Texas is an intriguing team with DJ Augustin’s and AJ Abrams’ scoring and Connor Atchley’s presence as a top glue-guy but Rick Barnes’ game time coaching of Kevin Durant in last year’s tournament has me wavering on the Longhorns’ chances this year. Ultimately these and other teams deserve to be in the discussion but they just missed out on the rarefied air occupied by the contenders and the putrefied air occupied by the pretenders.

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