2008 National League Preview

Baseball, Fantasy Sports, Major Sports

Posted by Hasan H, February 16, 2008 - 1:05 pm

Pitchers and catchers are heading to Florida and Arizona this week and I can’t wait for the baseball season to begin. 

But before we get into a preview of the Senior Circuit, I feel like I have to come clean with something. I am going to admit that after the Mets’ brutal collapse last year, I quietly swore off of baseball for a few months. I did this without telling anyone. My friends will remember that I didn’t make a big deal about the collapse. I refused to take consolation phone calls the night we got eliminated. And throughout the winter, I brushed off every Mets joke and quietly walked away from confrontations. 

I just stopped following the game. I don’t even know who won the World Series last year. But the Santana trade has changed everything.

A little history first: I am a proud and admitted sports homer. In all other sports if my team doesn’t do well, I lose interest really fast. I was done with the Jets at 1-5 and was done with the Knicks at 0-0 in 2002. But when it comes to the Mets, I have stuck with them through thick and thin. I followed every game just as closely in the Art Howe era as I did during the pennant winning year in 2000. 

And this is why the 2007 collapse was such an anomaly for me. I achieved unique levels of jadedness with this team last year. I was numb. I was apathetic. Actually, I despised the Mets. How does a team get so over-confident that it lets an almost guaranteed division title slip away and let it go to it’s most hated opponent? It was mind boggling. In my mind, here are some of the factors that must be present for a monumental collapse to take place:

• A sense of apathy permeating through the ranks, stemming from poor leadership
• The team getting an inordinate number of bad breaks/bad calls
• A history of bad karma finally catching up to the players
• A general hatred for the team across the league causing opponents to bring their “A” game every time they play your team
• Unexpected injuries

ALL of these factors were present during the fateful 20 day, 17 game collapse. Seasoned vets like Glavine, Delgado and even the usually emotional Reyes showed an appalling lack fire. The injury-plagued starting rotation affected the bullpen to the point where they couldn’t even hold 4 or 5 run leads! The Mets got no breaks from their opponents. The Phillies weren’t the only team that seemed to be out to get them. The Marlins appeared to get special pleasure out of beating them and knocking them out of the playoffs during the last weekend of the season - thanks to the constant dancing on the top steps of the dugouts, choreographed handshakes and the slow home run trots various Mets had displayed all year as they plowed through the NL. Enough was enough. They became the team everyone loved to hate and it showed.

But the off-season has changed everything.

First of all, Tom-ahawk Glavine is gone. Good bye Mr. Brave. Ask me if I cared about anything you did or said for us in your five years here. I pretended you didn’t exist.

Paul LoDuca is gone. I liked him but he was too big of a presence without much on-field production. Scrubs like Shawn Green and Jeff Conine have been purged. And now we have Johan Santana. He will carry the team the way David Wright does. I am displaying much optimisim today. And I hope it carries me throughout the season.

Now on to the preview.  I will be writing this in two parts.  Today we cover the National League. Here’s a division by division breakdown:

NL WEST

This is a very good division with the least competitive disparity among its teams out of all divisions in baseball. With the exception of the Giants, every team ranks from ‘good’ to ‘very good.’ 

San Diego Padres: For all the accolades Kevin Towers gets, his failure to acquire a bonafide power hitter continues to boggle my mind. That said, Towers does what he can. The recent signings of Tad Iguchi and Mark Prior, while not big news, will pay off for the Friars. I REALLY hope Prior stays healthy; he is too good to just call it a career. Cutting Marcus Giles was a mistake. He is ’scrappy’. Jake Peavy is here to stay and heads up a fantastic rotation which also includes Chris Young, Greg Maddux and the recently signed Randy Wolf. And with their bullpen, I wouldn’t want to face them in a short series.  The Madres win the division handily. Prediction: 92-70. Division Winner.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Andruw Jones’ smug face and his 128 K per season will fit very nicely with Jeff Kent’s temper and his .875 OPS.  Couple that with the sheer brilliance of Rafael Furcal’s .688 OPS and you have a offense full of underachieving pouty faces. Joe Torre will be exposed as a poor in-game manager. Look for Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche and Andre Ethier to be riding the pine under Torre as he tries to stay loyal to veterans. The only thing that may save the Dodgers is their pitching. Their rotation is well above average with Penny, Lowe, a recovering Schmidt and the addition of Hiroki Kuroda. Their bullpen scares the shit out of me; they are pretty much a lock to win every game they hold a lead in after 7 innings. Prediction: 86-76.

Colorado Rockies: There is plenty of offense in Denver even if Matt Holliday slips a bit from his MVP-caliber year. But their pitching won’t carry them again, humidified balls non-humidified balls.  I am a huge Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook fan but who else have they got? Brian Fuentes is a ticking fantasy timebomb. Matt Herges is not the answer.  Ubaldo Jimenez? Please. Prediction: 86-76.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The Douche… sorry, Diamondbacks took a step in the right direction in an attempt to fix their run differential issues. Dan Haren won’t nearly give up as many runs as their stopgap starters did last year. And if Randy Johnson comes back healthy, look out. But their offense is a liability. I know Eric Byrnes is good. I know Conor Jackson will hit. And my only non-Met man crush, Orlando Hudson (who is also one of only about 10 players in the entire sports world whose “intangibles” I honestly believe in but that’s another discussion), is good too. But show me a power hitter. Show me a NON-pitcher with a 1.000+ OPS. Micah Owings won’t cut it this time. Pitching rich, batting starved, exciting to watch; but due for a visit back to planet earth.  Prediction: 82-80.

San Francisco Giants:  Since I have to write something about every team, I’d say …  ummmm… I think Barry Zito will have a bounceback year and Aaron Rowand will fit in nicely. Prediction: 64-98.

NL CENTRAL

This is the weakest and most boring division in baseball.  Reminds me of the NL East of the mid to late 90s.

Milwaukee Brewers: The Brew Crew are the only team in this division that is worth-watching. What a stacked line up! Prince Fielder is my pre-season pick for NL MVP as long as he doesn’t gain any more weight. Ryan Braun is the real deal and despite their defensive liabilities, I am a huge fan of J.J. Hardy and Bill Hall. Their starting pitching is more than adequate. I still believe Chris Capuano is a good pitcher and will definitely bounce back from a terrible terrible 2007. To back up my prediction, I will be drafting Capuano in all my fantasy leagues this year. Mike Cameron is a solid addition who shores up their defense and no we don’t have to worry about his strikeouts in this line up. Eric Gagne and Guillermo Mota may just perform well given there is no fan or media pressure in Milwaukee. Heck, I even like their backups. Even though I am a bit disappointed they let Francisco Coredero go to the Reds, this is still my “other NL team” this year. And lastly, Ben Sheets, please stay healthy! Come on Brew Crew! Make me look smart. Prediction: 91-71. Division Winner.

Chicago Cubs: They have a good line up and good pitching yet Lou Piniella’s presence looms so large that I just can’t get excited about this team. 85 wins won’t be enough to win the division this year. Let the Kosuke Fukodome era begin. Prediction: 86-76.

Houston Astros: Am I the only one who openly thinks Miguel Tejada is not nearly as good when he is not on the juice? Come on! But let’s hope the small ballpark helps his numbers. Carlos Lee is a stud. Jose Valverde was a good acquisition. Brandon Backe is one of my fantasy sleepers. This team will surprise people.  Prediction: 81-81.

St. Louis Cardinals: Is this the year Albert Pujols finally gets caught for using steroids? I am kidding. But I am not kidding when I say that this team sucks. Combine their weak line up with the clusterfuck of a starting rotation and you will have Tony LaRussa setting new ejections records. Let’s hope Troy Glaus stays healthy for fantasy purposes.  But stay away from everyone not named Troy, Pujols or Izzy on this team. Prediction: 78-84.

Cincinnati Reds: Dusty Baker has taken over a team with no expectations but this team possesses some talent. Francisco Cordero is as sure a thing as it gets in the relief pitching universe. Brandon Phillips is still underrated and can have another quiet superstar type year. Let’s hope Aaron Harang’s arm doesn’t fall off. Overall, Dusty and Francisco together equal at least 5 more wins. Prediction: 77-85.

Pittsburgh Pirates: I am deeply sad to see David Littlefield go. Until the Santana trade, he was the GM most often targeted by Omar Minaya when he wanted to swindle a team into making a lopsided trade. The Pirates are still irrelevant. Ian Snell had an awesome year last year and should be their opening day starter. Stay away from all other Pirates. Prediction: 66-96.

NL EAST

The East will be just as competitive as it was last year. As a Mets fan, the Braves still scare me the most.  J-Roll and the Phils get no respect once again and have a right to be mad. Let’s hope this year the NL produces a 100 game winner and this is the division with the best chance to do so.

New York Mets: As excited I am about this season, the Mets are by no means a lock to win anything. Age will catch up with Delgado and Alou this year and I am hoping the improvements made by Wright and Reyes offset this loss of production. I am also hoping Reyes focuses more on the game than his choreographed handshakes. The bullpen is shaky. Stay away from Wagner in fantasy. That said, I still think this team will show enough balls to win the division and beyond. Santana and Wright are going to will the entire team into taking this year seriously. Prediction: 100-62. Division Winner.

Atlanta Braves: Watch Tom Glavine go to Atlanta and turn into a Cy Young caliber pitcher. I have no doubt in my mind about this.  Chipper will be the NL MVP. Teixeira will have 160RBI and 70 HR. OK, that’s it. I can’t say anything objective about this team.  Eff You Braves. Prediction: somewhere between 2nd and 3rd Place. NL Wild Card. 

Philadelphia Phillies: Their improbable division win last year was just as much a product of the Mets losing it as it was the Phillies going for it and grabbing it.  Other than Jimmy Rollins they don’t have a single voice on this team who can back up their words with their play. Only if Ryan Howard developed some effusiveness. But let’s hope he doesn’t. Cole Hamels is an ace pitcher. Brad Lidge will lose more games than he wins for the Phils.  Prediction: 90-72.

Washington Nationals: Jim Bowden is collecting veterans as usual for an All Star team 5 years too late. Dmitri Young, Paul LoDuca, Aaron Boone, Ronnie Belliard, Cristian Guzman. These guys don’t look nearly as scary as they did in their primes (where applicable). Ryan Zimmerman, however, is a legit star. So is Chad Cordero. Manny Acta is going to keep this team playing hard. Prediction: 70-92.

Florida Marlins: This team belongs in AAA. Not even Hanley Ramirez’s MVP type season can stop them from losing 100+ games. Prediction: 55-107.

MVP

Prince Fielder

Cy Young

Johan Santana

I refuse to make any playoff predictions. As an overall comment, I feel that the flow of talent from the loaded American League towards the NL will help the latter combat its reputation as the weaker league. Santana, Tejada, Dan Haren. These are big names. But the NL still has a lot of work to do. I am hoping for an exciting season.

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